Thursday, November 17, 2016

How Current Elector Rules Handed Donald Trump The U.S. 2016 Election

Article Two of the U.S. Constitution sets up the rules for "electors" (as part of a system that has come to be known as the "Electoral College" -- a term which does *not* appear in the Constitution).

Instead of the presidency being determined by a mere popular vote, the slate of electors (currently 538 of them) are supposed to vote for the candidate(s) which best represent(s) the votes of their state or district, and the candidate with the most votes wins.

Except that "All states except Maine and Nebraska have chosen electors on a "winner-take-all" basis since the 1880s." [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States)]

Why winner-take-all ? ? ?
Good question.  Personally, i think the answer to it is something akin to gerrymandering.  [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering]

Basically, it's a rip-off.

If the votes of electors were assigned proportional to how their states's voters voted (instead of being assigned winner-take-all), Hillary Clinton would have won the 2016 election against Donald Trump -- she would have received 268 electoral votes to Donald Trump's 265 (with 5 electoral votes having been cast for 3rd party candidates).

Here's my calculations of a state-by-state breakdown:


S T A T E   % Trump to %Clinton — # votes — Trump & Clinton votes
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
Alabama 62.9 to 34.6 — 9 votes — 5.661 & 3.114 — 6 & 3
Alaska 52.9 to 37.7 — 3 votes — 1.587 & 1.131 — 2 & 1
Arizona 49.5 to 45.4 — 11 votes — 5.445 & 4.994 — 6 & 5
Arkansas 60.4 to 33.8 — 6 votes — 3.624 & 2.028 — 4 & 2
California 33.0 to 61.5 — 55 votes — 18.15 & 33.825 — 18 & 34 (3 short)
Colorado 44.4 to 47.3 — 9 votes — 3.996 & 4.257 — 4 & 5
Connecticut 41.2 to 54.5 — 7 votes — 2.884 & 3.815 — 3 & 4
Delaware 41.9 to 53.4 — 3 votes — 1.257 & 1.602 — 1 & 2
District of Columbia 4.1 to 92.8 — 3 votes — 0.123 & 2.784 — 0 & 3
Florida 49.1 to 47.8 — 29 votes — 14.239 & 13.862 — 15 & 14
Georgia 51.3 to 45.6 — 16 votes — 8.208 & 7.296 — 9 & 7
Hawaii 30.0 to 62.2 — 4 votes — 1.2 & 2.488 — 1 & 3
Idaho 59.2 to 27.6 — 4 votes — 2.368 & 1.104 — 3 & 1
Illinois 39.4 to 55.4 — 20 votes — 7.88 & 11.08 — 8 & 12
Indiana 57.2 to 37.9 — 11 votes — 6.292 & 4.169 — 7 & 4
Iowa 51.8 to 42.2 — 6 votes — 3.108 & 2.532 — 4 & 2
Kansas 57.2 to 36.2 — 6 votes — 3.432 & 2.172 — 4 & 2
Kentucky 62.5 to 32.7 — 8 votes — 5.000 & 2.616 — 5 & 3
Louisiana 58.1 to 38.4 — 8 votes — 4.648 & 3.072 — 5 & 3
Maine 45.2 to 47.9 — 4 votes — 1.808 & 1.916 — 2 & 2 ( 1 & 3)
Maryland 35.3 to 60.5 — 10 votes — 3.53 & 6.05 — 3 & 7
Massachusetts 33.5 to 60.8% — 11 votes — 3.685 & 6.688 — 4 & 7
Michigan 47.6 to 47.3 — 16 votes — 7.616 & 7.568 — 8 & 8
Minnesota 45.4 to 46.9 — 10 votes — 4.54 & 4.69 — 5 & 5
Mississippi 58.3 to 39.7 — 6 votes — 3.498 & 2.382 — 4 & 2
Missouri 57.1 to 38.0 — 10 votes — 5.71 & 3.8 — 6 & 4
Montana 56.5 to 36.0 — 3 votes — 1.695 & 1.08 — 2 & 1
Nebraska 60.3 to 34.0 — 5 votes — 3.015 & 1.7 — 3 & 2
Nevada 45.5 to 47.9 — 6 votes — 2.73 & 2.874 — 3 & 3
New Hampshire 47.2 to 47.6 — 4 votes — 1.888 & 1.904 — 2 & 2
New Jersey 41.8 to 55.0 — 14 votes — 5.852 & 7.7 — 6 & 8
New Mexico 40.0 to 48.3 — 5 votes — 2.00 & 2.415 — 2 & 3
New York 37.5 to 58.8 — 29 votes — 10.875 & 17.052 — 11 & 18
North Carolina 50.5 to 46.7 — 15 votes — 7.575 & 7.005 — 8 & 7
North Dakota 64.1 to 27.8 — 3 votes — 1.923 & .834 — 2 & 1
Ohio 52.1 to 43.5 — 18 votes — 9.378 & 7.83 — 10 & 8
Oklahoma 65.3 to 28.9 — 7 votes — 4.5 & 2.023 — 5 & 2
Oregon 41.1 to 51.7 — 7 votes — 2.877 & 3.619 — 3 & 4
Pennsylvania 48.8 to 47.6 — 20 votes — 9.76 & 9.52 — 10 & 10
Rhode Island 39.8 to 55.4 — 4 votes — 1.592 & 2.216 — 1 & 3
South Carolina 54.9 to 40.8 — 9 votes — 4.941 & 3.672 — 5 & 4
South Dakota 61.5 to 31.7 — 3 votes — 1.845 & 0.951 — 2 & 1
Tennessee 61.1 to 34.9 — 11 votes — 6.721 & 3.839 — 7 & 4
Texas 52.6 to 43.4 — 38 votes — 19.988 & 16.492 — 20 & 17 (1 short)
Utah 45.9 to 27.8 — 6 votes — 2.754 & 1.668 — 3 & 2 (1 short)
Vermont 32.6 to 61.1 — 3 votes — 0.978 & 1.833 — 1 & 2
Virginia 45.0 to 49.9 — 13 votes — 5.85 & 6.487 — 6 & 7
Washington 38.2 to 54.4 — 12 votes — 4.584 & 6.528 — 5 & 7
West Virginia 68.7 to 26.5 — 5 votes — 3.435 & 1.325 — 4 & 1
Wisconsin 47.9 to 46.9 — 10 votes — 4.79 & 4.69 — 5 & 5
Wyoming 70.1 to 22.5 — 3 votes — 2.103 & 0.675 — 2 & 1


Trump electors:  265
Clinton electors:  268
   plus 5 electors for 3rd party candidates  (265 + 268 + 5 = 538)

Hillary Clinton WINS ! ! !

- - -

But the official results (supposedly):
   Trump electors:  290
   Clinton electors:  232
      (And *no* electors for 3rd party candidates.)
      (290 + 232 = 522 with not all states done counting votes, hence the missing 16)

Like i said, what a rip-off!

Monday, November 14, 2016

President-Elect Trump's 60 Minutes Interview, Friday 11 November 2016

in the 60 Minutes interview from Friday 11 November 2016:

Trump claimed to have won the election easily -- "won it easily, easily" -- even though he lost the popular vote.  how is that winning it easily -- with not even the majority of the popular vote ? ? ?

'Build The Wall' becomes 'Build A Fence' -- Trump said he would accept a fence for certain areas.

'Deport All 12 Million Illegal Immigrants' becomes 'Deport A Small Fraction Of Illegal Immigrants' -- no surprise there.

'Repeal Obamare' becomes 'Keep A Lot Of Obamacare' -- also no surprise.

Trump admits his transition team is made up of lobbyists (whom he decried in election speeches); he's already sold out, and he's not even president yet.

'Overturn Roe v. Wade' and 'Criminalize Getting An Abortion' become 'I'm Pro-Life; Let The States Decide' -- another promise down the drain.

Trump things protestors against his election are paid professionals, not regular people.  sure, Donald; where's *my* paycheck?

Trump admits to not following current news.  what a shock.

'Prosecute Hillary Clinton Over Emails' becomes 'I'll think about it' -- whoosh, another promise down the drain.

Trump...
   still won't release tax returns.  what a wussy coward.

   still thinks he knows more about ISIS than the generals.

and my final question:  will 'Support The Working Class' become 'The Working Class Doesn't Deserve $15/hour Wage' ? ? ?  we'll see if Trump will stand behind raising the minimum wage to $15 per hour.

We Can Survive Trump

now we have a firsthand experience of how someone like Adolf Hitler came to power in Germany in the 1920s & '30s.  hate still wins elections.

but we survived Hitler.

so we can survive Trump.

maybe next time we can elect someone based on love -- love of our immigrant neighbors and of people of different religions.  remember, we are all immigrants to this land -- even Native Americans have only been here for ten or twelve thousand years.

and we are all of different religions -- religious tolerance and religious freedom were what the United States was supposedly founded upon.  remember that the next time some huckster tries to feed you hate-based rhetoric.

Friday, November 11, 2016

Time To Move On

ok, so now it's time for Plan B -- if we can survive eight years of George W. Bush, we can survive a Trump presidency.  maybe he'll surprise us and go back to some of his former values; at least we can hope.

and it will be a lesson about the results of people casting protest votes [i.e., voting for a 3rd party candidate, even though you know they can never win] instead of simply abstaining from the vote because you couldn't choose between the two people who could possibly win.  (or they could do some more research and make a meaningful choice.)  i understand protest votes; i voted for Ross Perot back in '92.  oh well.

next time people will simply choose the lesser of two evils.

once upon a time, Trump was for a single-payer healthcare system -- probably the most effective method of containing rising healthcare costs -- but it would mean taking massive profits away from fat insurance companies (who sell both health insurance to individuals and malpractice insurance to doctors).  single-payer would be nice (and malpractice reform, while we're at it), but i'm not holding my breath.