Thursday, November 17, 2016

How Current Elector Rules Handed Donald Trump The U.S. 2016 Election

Article Two of the U.S. Constitution sets up the rules for "electors" (as part of a system that has come to be known as the "Electoral College" -- a term which does *not* appear in the Constitution).

Instead of the presidency being determined by a mere popular vote, the slate of electors (currently 538 of them) are supposed to vote for the candidate(s) which best represent(s) the votes of their state or district, and the candidate with the most votes wins.

Except that "All states except Maine and Nebraska have chosen electors on a "winner-take-all" basis since the 1880s." [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_(United_States)]

Why winner-take-all ? ? ?
Good question.  Personally, i think the answer to it is something akin to gerrymandering.  [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering]

Basically, it's a rip-off.

If the votes of electors were assigned proportional to how their states's voters voted (instead of being assigned winner-take-all), Hillary Clinton would have won the 2016 election against Donald Trump -- she would have received 268 electoral votes to Donald Trump's 265 (with 5 electoral votes having been cast for 3rd party candidates).

Here's my calculations of a state-by-state breakdown:


S T A T E   % Trump to %Clinton — # votes — Trump & Clinton votes
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
Alabama 62.9 to 34.6 — 9 votes — 5.661 & 3.114 — 6 & 3
Alaska 52.9 to 37.7 — 3 votes — 1.587 & 1.131 — 2 & 1
Arizona 49.5 to 45.4 — 11 votes — 5.445 & 4.994 — 6 & 5
Arkansas 60.4 to 33.8 — 6 votes — 3.624 & 2.028 — 4 & 2
California 33.0 to 61.5 — 55 votes — 18.15 & 33.825 — 18 & 34 (3 short)
Colorado 44.4 to 47.3 — 9 votes — 3.996 & 4.257 — 4 & 5
Connecticut 41.2 to 54.5 — 7 votes — 2.884 & 3.815 — 3 & 4
Delaware 41.9 to 53.4 — 3 votes — 1.257 & 1.602 — 1 & 2
District of Columbia 4.1 to 92.8 — 3 votes — 0.123 & 2.784 — 0 & 3
Florida 49.1 to 47.8 — 29 votes — 14.239 & 13.862 — 15 & 14
Georgia 51.3 to 45.6 — 16 votes — 8.208 & 7.296 — 9 & 7
Hawaii 30.0 to 62.2 — 4 votes — 1.2 & 2.488 — 1 & 3
Idaho 59.2 to 27.6 — 4 votes — 2.368 & 1.104 — 3 & 1
Illinois 39.4 to 55.4 — 20 votes — 7.88 & 11.08 — 8 & 12
Indiana 57.2 to 37.9 — 11 votes — 6.292 & 4.169 — 7 & 4
Iowa 51.8 to 42.2 — 6 votes — 3.108 & 2.532 — 4 & 2
Kansas 57.2 to 36.2 — 6 votes — 3.432 & 2.172 — 4 & 2
Kentucky 62.5 to 32.7 — 8 votes — 5.000 & 2.616 — 5 & 3
Louisiana 58.1 to 38.4 — 8 votes — 4.648 & 3.072 — 5 & 3
Maine 45.2 to 47.9 — 4 votes — 1.808 & 1.916 — 2 & 2 ( 1 & 3)
Maryland 35.3 to 60.5 — 10 votes — 3.53 & 6.05 — 3 & 7
Massachusetts 33.5 to 60.8% — 11 votes — 3.685 & 6.688 — 4 & 7
Michigan 47.6 to 47.3 — 16 votes — 7.616 & 7.568 — 8 & 8
Minnesota 45.4 to 46.9 — 10 votes — 4.54 & 4.69 — 5 & 5
Mississippi 58.3 to 39.7 — 6 votes — 3.498 & 2.382 — 4 & 2
Missouri 57.1 to 38.0 — 10 votes — 5.71 & 3.8 — 6 & 4
Montana 56.5 to 36.0 — 3 votes — 1.695 & 1.08 — 2 & 1
Nebraska 60.3 to 34.0 — 5 votes — 3.015 & 1.7 — 3 & 2
Nevada 45.5 to 47.9 — 6 votes — 2.73 & 2.874 — 3 & 3
New Hampshire 47.2 to 47.6 — 4 votes — 1.888 & 1.904 — 2 & 2
New Jersey 41.8 to 55.0 — 14 votes — 5.852 & 7.7 — 6 & 8
New Mexico 40.0 to 48.3 — 5 votes — 2.00 & 2.415 — 2 & 3
New York 37.5 to 58.8 — 29 votes — 10.875 & 17.052 — 11 & 18
North Carolina 50.5 to 46.7 — 15 votes — 7.575 & 7.005 — 8 & 7
North Dakota 64.1 to 27.8 — 3 votes — 1.923 & .834 — 2 & 1
Ohio 52.1 to 43.5 — 18 votes — 9.378 & 7.83 — 10 & 8
Oklahoma 65.3 to 28.9 — 7 votes — 4.5 & 2.023 — 5 & 2
Oregon 41.1 to 51.7 — 7 votes — 2.877 & 3.619 — 3 & 4
Pennsylvania 48.8 to 47.6 — 20 votes — 9.76 & 9.52 — 10 & 10
Rhode Island 39.8 to 55.4 — 4 votes — 1.592 & 2.216 — 1 & 3
South Carolina 54.9 to 40.8 — 9 votes — 4.941 & 3.672 — 5 & 4
South Dakota 61.5 to 31.7 — 3 votes — 1.845 & 0.951 — 2 & 1
Tennessee 61.1 to 34.9 — 11 votes — 6.721 & 3.839 — 7 & 4
Texas 52.6 to 43.4 — 38 votes — 19.988 & 16.492 — 20 & 17 (1 short)
Utah 45.9 to 27.8 — 6 votes — 2.754 & 1.668 — 3 & 2 (1 short)
Vermont 32.6 to 61.1 — 3 votes — 0.978 & 1.833 — 1 & 2
Virginia 45.0 to 49.9 — 13 votes — 5.85 & 6.487 — 6 & 7
Washington 38.2 to 54.4 — 12 votes — 4.584 & 6.528 — 5 & 7
West Virginia 68.7 to 26.5 — 5 votes — 3.435 & 1.325 — 4 & 1
Wisconsin 47.9 to 46.9 — 10 votes — 4.79 & 4.69 — 5 & 5
Wyoming 70.1 to 22.5 — 3 votes — 2.103 & 0.675 — 2 & 1


Trump electors:  265
Clinton electors:  268
   plus 5 electors for 3rd party candidates  (265 + 268 + 5 = 538)

Hillary Clinton WINS ! ! !

- - -

But the official results (supposedly):
   Trump electors:  290
   Clinton electors:  232
      (And *no* electors for 3rd party candidates.)
      (290 + 232 = 522 with not all states done counting votes, hence the missing 16)

Like i said, what a rip-off!

No comments: